您的当前位置:首页 > 私募资讯 > Bitfinex report: Market volatility will intensify, Bitcoin is expected to hit new highs after US election 正文
时间:2025-05-24 12:38:22 来源:网络整理 编辑:私募资讯
Bitfinex,thecryptocurrencyexchange,saidinareportreleasedonMondaythattheuncertaintyoftheUSelection,th
Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.
Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.
On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.
Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.
The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility
Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.
The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.
The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666
RADAR是什么币?怎么购买RADAR币?RADAR币官网总量和币种概念介绍2025-05-24 13:23
经营租赁是什么意思2025-05-24 13:18
零售商交易者因Memecoin讨论激增而拥抱“赌博”心态,分析师发出警告2025-05-24 12:58
中币网哪个更安全 中币网哪个更安全一点2025-05-24 12:26
所得税年度汇算清缴表怎么填2025-05-24 12:04
Vitalik Buterin 提议简化以太坊基础层,目标五年内实现“接近比特币的简洁性”2025-05-24 11:57
虚拟交易平台排行榜 中国虚拟货币交易平台排行榜2025-05-24 11:48
sc币如何2025-05-24 11:14
平台币不跟涨2025-05-24 10:54
小狐狸钱包硬件2025-05-24 10:45
dna元界行情2025-05-24 13:05
500eth是多少2025-05-24 12:48
c网交易平台2025-05-24 12:40
水帘洞里有什么-花果山水帘洞里有什么2025-05-24 12:31
比特币运算什么 比特币运算的是什么2025-05-24 12:19
报销医疗费会计如何做分录2025-05-24 11:57
比特币eth是什么 比特币 eth2025-05-24 11:54
snt总量是多少2025-05-24 11:40
三亚台风什么时候走2025-05-24 11:34
在招联好期贷上申请借款为什么不符合资格呢?2025-05-24 11:09